by Jeff Thredgold, CSP

The U.S. Economy

What we now call the Great Recession officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.  It was the longest, the deepest, and the most painful recession since the Great Depression.

By my count, that suggests that the current U.S. economic expansion is now reaching the two-and-a-half year mark.  The current expansion has been less than satisfying both statistically and emotionally, with major headwinds still in play involving weak residential and commercial real estate markets, uncomfortably high unemployment, major European financial risk, and elevated levels of anxiety about the direction of the federal government.

The current U.S. economic expansion has been especially lackluster when considering the massive and unprecedented levels of both fiscal and monetary stimulus.  While modest economic growth has returned, a “recession of confidence” remains center stage.

Economic growth in the new year about to unfold is likely to remain substandard, with most forecasts congregating around a 1.5%-2.5% real (inflation adjusted) rate of growth.  More bearish forecasters see particularly anemic growth in 2012’s first half.

The size and scope of a possible European financial implosion could lead the U.S. and much of the world back into recession, although that is not the consensus view.  Nevertheless, investors around the globe have taken a “shoot first, ask questions later” approach to European sovereign (national) debt markets and the contagion that has now spread to more and more members of the euro community.

Government

Political theater of the absurd has been commonplace in the nation’s capital, with extreme partisan politics today’s reality.  The government’s ability to live within its means remains highly elusive, even as European developments should be sending strong signals to Washington DC about damaging annual budget deficits and a more than $15,000,000,000,000 gross national debt.

Various economic studies have suggested that any nation’s ability to prosper and grow at a satisfactory pace is endangered when its gross national debt reaches 90% of that nation’s annual economic output.  We are now at 100%…and rising quickly.

Trillion dollar plus budget deficits of the past three fiscal years will continue for as far as the eye can see.  The biggest threat to this nation is the financial cancer of irresponsible government deficits.  As noted frequently, the need to slow the future growth pace of entitlement programs is mandatory.

2012 Elections

Already tired of the political battles underway?  Just think…only 342 days until Election Day!  The failure of the “super committee” was the latest in government missteps.  An emotional national debate about 1) the size and growth pace of the federal government, and 2) who pays for it will be one key element of political discussion during most of 2012.

U.S. Employment

Wary business leaders and worried consumers have contributed to the weak level of American job creation during the current economic recovery.  The nation has regained only one-fourth of the eight million jobs lost during the crisis of 2008 and 2009.  Unless and until confidence levels improve, weak additions to employment will continue.

The nation’s unemployment rate has averaged 9.0% for the past three years. Most forecasters see an unemployment rate of not less than 8.5% by the end of 2012.

To be heard frequently during the Presidential campaign now well underway…no sitting President in the past 75 years has been rewarded with a second term when the unemployment rate was above 7.2%.  Whether the President can shift the blame for high unemployment to intransigent Republicans in the Congress will have a telling impact on election results.

U.S. Inflation

Consumer prices are expected to rise roughly 3.5% during 2011, with a slightly lesser rise the consensus view for 2012.  Weak global economic growth could lead oil prices lower, a key element in that forecast.  Over a longer time horizon, the debate continues between those expecting higher U.S. inflation and those seeing a Japan-style deflation in theU.S.

The Federal Reserve

The Fed’s most critical interest rate—the federal funds rate—has been at an all-time low target level of 0.00%-0.25% since December 2008.  Moreover, the Fed’s Open Market Committee has stated they expect this rate to remain unchanged until at least mid-2013.

In addition, the Fed has tripled the size of its balance sheet by buying massive amounts of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.  The intent?  To drive long-term interest rates lower.  While such actions have been largely successful, weak home prices across the nation, high unemployment, and a more paper-intensive lending industry…negatively impacted by the Dodd-Frank financial legislation…has not led to a strong surge in mortgage refinance activity.

Housing and Mortgage Rates

Most forecasting economists see national home prices stabilizing by mid-year 2012, with very modest price appreciation to follow.  At the same time, conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have been at a 60-year low near 4.0% in recent weeks.

One could make a case to delay a home purchase for 6-12 months, but mortgage rates could rise enough to offset any slightly lower home price.  Now may be an outstanding time to purchase a new or foreclosed property and to refinance a mortgage.

Global Keys

Chinese and Indian economic growth are likely to slow somewhat, while Japan struggles with very substandard performance.  High oil prices have boosted oil producing nations at the expense of user nations.  The Canadian economy has slowed, whileMexicoandBrazilare doing well.

However, these days it’s all about a fragile European economy. Greece, Ireland, and Portugal have already been bailed out, while major anxiety about Spain and Italy exists.  Even the French have seen borrowing costs rise as questions about that economy have surfaced.  A possible French downgrade from their current “triple A” status could send additional shock waves across Europe.

The Germans and the International Monetary Fund will face rising pressure to stem European debt contagion, even as impacted nations face the real need to get spending and debt issuance under control.  No other issue is more critical to global economic performance in 2012 than a solid resolution of the European debt crisis.

Jeff Thredgold, MS, is the only economist in the world to have earned the CSP designation, awarded by the International Federation for Professional Speakers and the National Speakers Association. He has spoken more than 1,000 times during the past 20 years, traveling more than 1 million miles in the process.

Inquire about Jeff Thredgold

by Zoe Training staff

Jayne Gnadt, a seasoned professional with an extensive background in project management, is also an energizing and memorable keynote speaker who shared some insightful gems with us in this interview.

What’s your favorite topic(s) to present on? Why?

I love to speak on motivational and rather “edgy” topics because my greatest thrill from a speaking perspective is to have everyone laughing and smiling from ear to ear!

3 words that describe your presentation style:

Energizing, Fun, Engaging

What’s the most unusual location (or circumstances) you’ve presented in?

I’m actually getting ready to facilitate a class in Broken Bow, Neb., at the country club as there isn’t any other place in town large enough to hold a class for 25 people!!

Tell us about a presentation experience that went wrong:

I was keynote speaking in front of a very large audience at a fancy conference and my mother Skyped me and appeared on the huge Trinitron screen behind me! One of the funniest, embarrassing and great learning experiences for all. I still tell stories about that experience in many of my classes and keynotes!

Do you have a favorite quote? What/why?

Life should not be a journey to the grave with intention of arriving safely, in an attractive well-preserved body. But rather to skid in sideways, champagne in one hand, strawberries in the other, body thoroughly used up, totally worn out and screaming Woohoo! — I love this because it describes how I love to live my life – to the fullest, full of energy and enjoying the ride!

Tell us a recent book you’ve read and would recommend:

“Left to Tell” by Immaclee Ilibagiza.  It’s a story of survival and faith that changed my entire outlook on life and provided amazing inspiration.

Inquire about Jayne Gnadt

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by D.J. Vanas

I often hear people say that money is the root of all evil.  However, this oft-misquoted biblical text actually says it’s the “love of money” that can be our undoing.  Few subjects are as emotionally charged as the concept of money – earning it, spending it, investing it, losing it, dreaming about it, wanting it… needing it.

We live in a society that is oftentimes contradictory, and at other times absurd, in the way we view money. If we pay a person $25 million a year to play a game, we don’t bat an eye.  But if a teacher gets more than $50k a year, they are accused of being in it for the money.  We love it, we hate others with it, we get inspired by it, we dream about it, fear for a lack of it, and yet have problems we could have never imagined when we suddenly get lots of it (study the Lottery effect and how many families are torn apart through feuding and fighting once a family member wins the lottery).

On the other hand, a lack of money can cause our undoing as well.  Desperate times call for desperate measures, and that can translate into poor decision-making or worse. We have all seen people do terrible things because their lack of money makes them desperate – then they lie, steal, or cheat to get it.

Here are a few ideas to gain perspective on this heavily charged subject:

Money is a tool, not the ultimate goal – a homebuilder’s goal is not to collect a beautiful set of tools, but to build a beautiful home. Why do you want money?  To eat it, ride in it, lay with it, or let it teach your kids its wisdom?  Of course not.  Money is a means to an end, not the end in itself.  It’s simply a tool that can help you build and do other things.  If you are in doubt on this one, consider this…

I hear conversations all the time that revolve around this idea: “if I were rich, I’d be happy and all my problems would be over.”  I have a friend named Dan who bought several thousand shares of inexpensive stock in the company that employed him.  The shares were bought at less than twenty-five cents a piece – and traded at $68 per share when his company went public!  Dan was an instant multi-millionaire.  He paid off his mom’s house, bought her a car and paid off his student loans.  He quit his job, traveled throughout Asia and Europe and stayed with friends all over the US.  After a year, he was bored out of his mind.   Dan went back to work to connect with the highest human need – not to have millions, but to feel valued and useful.

Money is a by-product. When we align our talent and ability with our passion, we pursue excellence and money has a way of finding us in return.  Money is merely a by-product of success, a residual effect of effort.  When we chase money for its own sake, it can become the quickest way to chase it away.  Don’t make it the sole reason for your work or your days will quickly become frustrating or worse… boring.

Bottom line – keep money in perspective and don’t let the media drive you to twist your perspective to match theirs.  After all, your worth is not found in your bank accounts or the car you drive.  Your worth is found the fact that you are… you.

A motivated entrepreneur, author, and professional speaker, D.J. Vanas started Native Discovery Inc. in May of 1999 to “build the warriors to tomorrow…today.” D.J. uses traditional warrior concepts and colorful wisdom found in Native American culture to inspire others to achieve their best in life, school, and career. For the past decade, D.J. has used his dynamic programs to build warriors in 49 states and internationally to over 3,000 audiences at organizations such as IBM, NASA and hundreds of tribal communities, governments and schools.

by Sarah Michel

Recently a brilliant friend and colleague described to me how she felt attending a professional meeting where she didn’t know anyone sitting around her as being, “awkward and painful,” when she found herself at a loss for how to break the ice with someone she doesn’t know.  Here was someone who has so much to offer anyone lucky enough to engage in conversation with her but her reluctance to initiate interaction caused her to avoid eye contact and retreat inward and miss out on the potential network relationships sitting around her.  These are the people that keep me up at nights.

I have had a life-long fascination with people who have a natural preference for introversion and think that they’re really bad at breaking the ice and talking to people they don’t know.  These people (you know who you are) also think they’re bad at networking, which couldn’t be farther from the truth.  In my experience, they may not work the room and come away with the most business cards but the few people they do meet they will make a meaningful connection with that actually has a high chance of continuing on after the first meeting.  That is how you build a great network – one relationship at a time.

In today’s constantly changing, crazy busy world, your success will be determined by the breadth of people you know and how quickly you can get the information or resource you need to do your job faster, better, or easier.  The more people you meet who live in worlds you don’t even know about yet, the stronger your network will be.  No matter if you’re breaking the ice online or in person, how you phrase your first opening question to capture the attention of the receiver is critical because you have less than 15 seconds to do it.  People are moving at warp speed and you simply won’t break through the million thoughts running through their mind or get them to stop and pay attention to you if you’re not compelling.

Here are 10 proven ice breakers to help you break in and make out with anyone, anywhere, anytime:

• “This is my first time at a meeting like this, how about you?”
• “Tell me about yourself and how you spend most of your time?
• “What has been the best part of your week so far?”
• “What do you like doing when you’re not at work?”
• “What do you love about your profession?”
• “What’s the most interesting project you’ve worked on in the past year?
• “What keeps you up at night, what’s your biggest challenge?”
• “What’s your number one customer’s biggest concern right now?”
• “Who do you most admire in your company and why?”
• “What do you wish your coworkers really knew about you?”

I hope these ice breakers will give you the confidence to start conversations that will lead to amazing connections and opportunities for you if you’re willing to give it a try.

The world is waiting to meet you!

Sarah Michel, CSP, is an international speaker who works with organizations and associations, creating behavioral changes by teaching people how to intentionally connect with anyone, anywhere, anytime through her Perfecting Connecting® keynote and training programs.

by Zoe Training staff

A body language expert and teacher of unconscious persuasion skills, Traci Brown shows participants how to use her techniques in all sorts of business negotiations and in interactions with personal clients, and has even adapted the skills to talk herself out of an embarrassing number of traffic tickets. Traci shares some personal insights and words of wisdom in our latest Zoe Spotlight interview.

Words that describe your presentation style:

Engaging and laugh-out-loud funny.

What’s the most unusual way you’ve been paid to speak?

When I first started out and was just getting my feet wet, once I was paid for a speech with fireworks.  It was a nonprofit group and they didn’t have cash, so I took them and had lots of fun.

What are your most popular presentation topics?

Body language and unconscious persuasion is by far my post popular.  People like to leave with tools that are immediately usable and can have a big impact on the bottom line.

Why did you become a speaker/trainer?

Speaking is a way to affect lots of people at once.  It’s just a more effective use of resources than one-on-one coaching.  I’ll always do coaching; speaking is just an expansion of that.  Additionally, for me it fills my need of excitement and performing when the pressure is on. Bike racing used to do this for me.  Now I’ve replaced it with speaking.

Are you involved in any community projects/issues?

I’m the director of the Colorado Aloha Festival, a two-day celebration of the Hawaiian culture: music, art, food, and hula dancing.  20,000+ people attend.  And yes, I’m a hula dancer.

What’s your favorite quote?

“Excuses are the tools that allow you to deny the truth and destroy opportunity.”  While I was racing I had a coach that would tell me this.  And as much as I hated it at the time now I know he was right.

by Zoe Training staff

Imaginibbles…Chief Imaginator…Creativi-Tees…these are words that originated from the creative mind of Tamara Kleinberg – an idea tinkerer, serial entrepreneur, nationally published author, innovation artist, and martial artist. She is also a speaker and trainer who helps organizations and associations looking to ignite innovation, provoke new ideas, and challenge people to unlock their creative potential.

We asked Tamara what motivates her to maintain that quirky, creative edge, and to inspire the same in others.

What are your most popular presentation topics?

“Think Sideways” and “Playing on the Fringes.” “Think Sideways” gives people a rich understanding of how imagination is the competitive advantage as well as dozens of tools to strengthen the imaginative spirit and get into a creative state of mind daily. It’s for people who want the courage to dream big and act entrepreneurially. “Playing on the Fringes” is about the expectations of the new economy and the top tools for breaking free from old patterns of thinking. It gives participants a road map to the fringes for unique and ownable ideas.

Why did you become a speaker/trainer?

After climbing to the top of the corporate ladder as an innovation and brand consultant for Fortune 500 – Procter and Gamble, General Mills, Clorox, etc. – I realized a few things. First, that many of my colleagues had lost the ability to imagine. Second, that lost talent made it hard for people to do more with less, adapt better to change, engage creative problem solving, see and create ideas and opportunities, and dream big. I wanted to help people unlock their imaginative and innovative side so that they could get all those wonderful benefits back. Speaking and training was a natural fit and I’ve loved every minute of it.

Do you have a favorite quote? What/why?

“Do or do not, there is no try” – Yoda. I am a free spirit wrapped in a type-A personality. That means I love action. I love to put imagination to work and to see innovation come to life.  I hate excuses and love challenges. I think Yoda sums it up very well.

Tell us a recent book you’ve read and would recommend:

I love imaginative fiction like “Water For Elephants” and “Harry Potter.” For me, there is nothing more powerful than suspending belief and being transported to a different world. And, while I love a great business book, I also like to follow entrepreneurs and leaders that I think are doing amazing things right now. I don’t want to wait five years for the book to come out. I want to learn from them while they are doing it. Today, I am following Johnny Cupcakes, Tony Hsieh from Zappos, and Steve Spangler Science.  I go to their websites, read their blogs, and look for news about them. I’ve learned a lot just from paying attention and keeping my antennas up.

What are you most grateful for in life?

I’m grateful that every day I wake up excited to get the day going. I love my family time, my work time, and of course my “me” time.  I’m grateful that I’ve been able to build a business that fosters imagination in people young and old. I’m grateful for the big and small things every day, like my hot cup of coffee in the morning.

Where do you see yourself ten years from now?

I love this question. I see myself overseeing an empire that includes creative apparel, TV shows, keynote speaking, training, and my dog sitting next to my desk. I started this dream a few years ago and every day gets me a step closer. This is why imagination and innovation are so important. Every day you have to create what hasn’t yet been created and visualize and make your dreams come true.

by Zoe Training staff

There are thousands of doctors and thousands of professional speakers, but few of them are both a doctor and a speaker. Brad Nieder, MD, is one of them. Brad combines his humor-filled doses of medicine with wellness advice to entertain audiences from the healthcare industry across the country.

As The Healthy Humorist®, Brad knows laughter in the workplace can enhance communication, aid creativity, and improve productivity. And his therapeutic presentation, “Laughter is the Best Medicine,” is quite effective at teaching audiences how humor can reduce stress, manage pain, and boost the immune system.

In this interview, Brad delivers some insightful answers about his presentations and personal life.

What’s your favorite topic(s) to present on? Why?

“Laughter is the Best Medicine” — It’s my mantra! And it’s my only topic.

Three words that describe your presentation style:

Seinfeldesque, inspiring, informative.

What are your favorite groups of people to work with?

I like working with all groups, but most of my clients are in the health care industry.

What’s the most unusual location (or circumstances) you’ve presented in?/Tell us about a presentation experience that went wrong:

I once delivered a continuing education program … to a bunch of folks getting drunk … at a “Redneck County Fair” theme party.

Do you have any pets? Kids? Unusual hobbies?

I have a three-year-old son (Isaac) and a one-year-old daughter (Molly). I like fly fishing, downhill skiing and “Dark ‘n Stormy” drinks.

by Don Cooper, The Sales Heretic™

Not long ago I received a menu in the mail from a local Chinese restaurant. On the front of the tri-fold mailer is a proud proclamation in large type: “$1.38 Chinese Food.”

Sure enough, all of the appetizers and most of the entrees listed inside are indeed only $1.38.

My first thought?

This stuff must really suck.

Seriously, if they’re charging less than a buck-and-a-half per item, they must be using the cheapest, lowest-quality ingredients possible. And that’s not what I want to eat.

Too often, business owners, professionals and salespeople feel they need to cut their prices to attract more customers. But that can actually work against you.

We’ve all learned from experience that as a general rule, you get what you pay for. Higher-quality goods and services tend to be more expensive, lower-quality ones tend to be cheaper.

Which means if you’re the cheapest option around, people will perceive you to be the worst. Is that the positioning in the marketplace you really want?

People don’t want cheap, they want good. If you’re good, say so. Make the relationship between your quality and your price clear. Point out what makes you better than your competitors and how that’s better for your prospect.

If you want to boost your sales, don’t make your product or service cheaper. Make it more appetizing.

By combining his sales expertise and performance skills with intensive research, Don Cooper delivers programs that are industry and even company specific. So audience members get unique insights and practical, relevant tools they can use immediately to increase their sales—which is why Don is typically the highest-rated speaker at conferences and why his corporate clients bring him back again and again.

by Zoe Training staff

Did you know that unleashing your creative side helps bring about a new way of looking at life and business? As a speaker, improv teacher, and stand-up comedian, it’s Avish Parashar’s objective to show audiences how they can learn a lot about themselves and their potential for professional excellence – while having fun in a creative format. For Avish, teaching improv is all about helping participants learn how to respond to unplanned challenges, for with all things in life – no matter how well things are planned out – things tend to go wrong or the unexpected usually happens, and it’s good to know how to maintain your sanity and achieve success during those moments the Universe throws you a curve ball.

What’s your favorite topic(s) to present on? Why?

“Ding Happens! How to Deliver Great Leadership, Service, and Teamwork – Even When Things Goes Wrong”

This topic lets me combine everything creative I love – improv comedy, stand-up comedy, and storytelling – with content and a message that resonates with audiences. I get to be funny and creative while helping people do better both professionally and personally. It’s awesome!

Three words that describe your presentation style:

Energetic. Interactive. Hilarious.

What are some things that surprise you or inspire you about your interactions with clients/participants?

In all of my presentations, I have the audience play improv comedy games. Even though I have done it for years, I still think it’s so cool how almost every audience – regardless of age, gender, industry, or position – are willing to play along and have fun. They also come out of each exercise with some great examples of creativity. There are exceptions, but most audiences, even if they don’t know it, are fun, playful, and creative, and that inspires me.

Do you have a favorite quote? What/why?

My favorite quote changes from time to time. Right now it’s Steve Martin’s answer when people ask him how to make it in show business:

“Be so good they can’t ignore you.”

Everyone knows the value of being “good.” I’ve recently realized the critical difference between “being good” and “being so good they can’t ignore you.” The former is a way to keep happy clients. The second is a way to get people beating down your door to hire you. I keep this quote present as a constant reminder to myself to keep getting better.

What’s one thing on your “bucket list” you hope to do in the next year?

I have wanted to write a novel since I was eight years old (I’m little older than that now). I started one last year and am halfway through it. I fully intend to finish not just a first draft, but a completed manuscript by the end of the year. Whether it gets published, well, that’s another story…

Why did you become a speaker/trainer?

I have always loved doing two things: performing and teaching. I have been on stage since before high school, and devoted a lot of my life to it. I have also always loved to teach, but not in a traditional “classroom” setting. I remember training in karate and being excited to get my black belt, not because of the achievement (though that was cool) but because in my school getting a black belt meant you could teach! I love it. One day I went to a big motivational seminar and as I watched the speaker, I had a revelation: the speaker was doing a great job teaching and performing. The two things I most love combined in one. From that point, I knew I would be a speaker someday.

by Zoe Training staff

A sought-after expert on conversation skills and business social networking techniques for use at networking events and social functions, Debra Fine’s media appearances include: the Today Show, the Early Show, NPR, CNN, Fox Business News, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and Men’s Health Magazine.

The formerly shy, tongue-tied “enginerd” is the author of the best-selling book, “The Fine Art of Small Talk.”

What’s your favorite topic(s) to present on? Why?

“The Fine Art of Building Relationships: Face to Face Interactions in an Online World.” Every individual and organization is looking to enhance relationships with potential as well as current clients/customers and gain increased visibility in the marketplace. This may mean making the most of out of networking occasions or simply turning every conversation into an opportunity. In addition, skills offered during my presentations benefit internal relationships with teams, mentors, C-Suite, staff and colleagues. This program is my favorite because it supplies tools that can be instantaneously implemented with immediate rewards.

Three words that describe your presentation style:

Entertaining, Informative, Interactive

Are you involved in any community projects/issues?

I have been a Rotarian since 1993, involved in all levels of service both locally and internationally. This upcoming 2011/2012 I will serve as the President of the Denver Southeast Rotary Club.

Do you have a favorite quote? What/why?

“Every conversation is an opportunity for success.” When we take the time to reflect on our business, social and even romantic interactions we understand that conversations – small, big, filled with conflict or mired in misunderstanding – make a huge difference in our lives.

Tell us a recent book you’ve read and would recommend:

“Start-up Nation” by Dan Senor and Saul Singer is an intriguing guide to the entrepreneurial success of Israel. What types of individuals and teams bring success to new ideas? What can a nation do to motivate and encourage an entrepreneurial culture? I learned a lot and was very inspired. Also, even though you did not ask…I have another favorite this year (I am an avid reader who is a member of two book clubs!): “Born to Run” by Christopher McDougall. I long ago stopped running and expected this would appeal to runners only. Boy, was I wrong! The author uncovers myths and tells a story (non-fiction) that is gripping and filled with interesting information.

What are you most grateful for in life?

My first innate response is: my children and husband. But after a moment I realized that I am most grateful for my good health. Without it I would not be the parent I am, or the upbeat, happy person they can model and enjoy. Despite a brush with cancer, and other minor challenges, I have enjoyed a life filled with energy and strength.